Breezy and Pleasant Monday

Northeast breezes will continue on Monday, gusty along the coast. Temperatures will remain pleasant, with highs in the low 80s. A gradual increase in moisture the next couple days will result in more clouds mixing with sunshine near the coast along with a slight chance of coastal showers by Tuesday. Rain chances may increase more for Wednesday and Thursday.

On the coast:

Heavy surf will continue on Monday, with more beach erosion expected due to the combination of high tides and gusty northeast breezes. The risk of riptides will remain high.

Tropics:

Disorganized weather around the Bahamas could get better organized as it moves west across the Florida Straits into the Gulf of Mexico the next couple days.

Cooler and Breezy This Weekend

High pressure building to the north will provide cooler temperatures and low humidity this weekend, giving us a true taste of fall. Expect plenty of sun with highs in the low 80s and lows dropping to near 60. Breezes will be brisk at times, especially along the coast.

On the coast:

The combination of astronomical high tides due to the recent full moon and increasing breezes out of the northeast this weekend will lead to some heavy surf and possible beach erosion as well as an enhanced risk of riptides. There is also a good chance of shallow coastal flooding around the morning high tides Saturday (10:31 a.m., 8.9 feet) and Sunday (11:26 a.m., 8.7 feet).

Tropics:

"Lorenzo" moved onshore in Mexico Friday morning as a category one hurricane. The system will dissipate over Mexico, but continue to produce flooding rains there as it does.

"Karen" is barely hanging on as a tropical storm in the central Atlantic. Unfavorable winds aloft are hurting this system, which is expected to weaken to a tropical depression this weekend as it moves northwest.

Finally, a new tropical depression has formed in the far eastern Atlantic. This system could become a tropical storm (Melissa) this weekend.

Cooler Weather Almost Here

A cold front will move through early Friday, but temperatures will stay quite warm for one more day. Highs will reach near 90 in many locations, though the humidity will be dropping throughout the day, so it should feel less muggy. Then winds will turn to the northeast for Saturday and Sunday. It will become breezy, especially along the coast. Highs will be in the low 80s over the weekend with low humidity and partly cloudy skies.

The combination of astronomical high tides due to the recent full moon and increasing breezes out of the northeast this weekend will lead to some heavy surf on the coastal waters and a good chance of shallow coastal flooding around the morning high tides Saturday (10:31 a.m.) and Sunday (11:26 a.m.).

Tropics:

Tropical Storm Karen is suffering through unfavorable winds aloft and is weakening some. It will most likely hold on as a tropical storm the next few days as it travels generally towards the northwest into the central Atlantic, staying northeast of the Lesser Antilles.

The system in the southwest Gulf of Mexico is now Tropical Storm Lorenzo. It will moves west into Mexico on Friday, possibly as a minimal hurricane.

A Warm Fall Day

For today, there will be mainly sunny skies in the morning then a mix of sun and clouds. The afternoon high will be in the upper 80’s. For tonight, we’ll have areas of clouds as a cold front moves into the area. The low will be near 68. I don’t see much of a chance for showers or storms with the front. The cold front will pass through the area early on Friday morning. For Friday, there will be mostly sunny skies with highs remaining warm in the upper 80’s. Saturday and Sunday will feel more like fall with highs in the lower 80’s and lower humidity.

Tropics:

Tropical Storm Karen:

Karen is looking less organized this morning. There is some upper level wind shear pushing the storms away from the center of circulation. Karen has winds of 65 mph, and is 950 miles east of the Windward Islands. The computer models continue to show Karen to turn north over the next five days.

Tropical Depression #13:

TD #13 has not strengthened over the last 24 hrs. The depression is drifting west towards the coast of Mexico. TD #13 should make landfall early Saturday in Mexico.

We have passed the peak of hurricane season, and now we are seeing the most activity all season long. There are a few more areas that have potential to develop over the next few days. We will be watching those areas for development into the weekend.

Muggy Weather Through Friday

Temperatures will remain above average the next couple days until a cold front brings a taste of fall this weekend. Highs Thursday and Friday will be in the upper 80s, with a few spots in the area reaching 90. Rain chances look pretty low; there is a slight chance a shower or thunderstorm could make it into the western part of our area Thursday evening. Breezes will be from the west-northwest Friday just behind the cold front, providing warm and dry conditions. Then breezes will turn to the northeast for the weekend and will be brisk along the coast. Highs will drop into the low 80s this weekend, with some upper 70s at the beaches.

The combination of astronomical high tides due to the full moon and northeast winds this weekend could lead to minor coastal flooding at the times of high tide Saturday and Sunday mornings.

Tropics:

Tropical Storm Karen is about midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. It will be moving mainly northwest the next few days through the central Atlantic and to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles. The storm may become a hurricane for a while the next day or two, then unfavorable upper level winds could weaken it back to a tropical storm.

The tropical depression in the southwest Gulf of Mexico will move slowly and erratically the next 2 to 4 days before making landfall in Mexico. The system still has a good chance to become a named system (Lorenzo).

Low pressure with showers and thunderstorms will be east of Florida Thursday moving northeast. Any possible development of this system will have no impact on our weather as it will remain well offshore ahead of an approaching cold front.

A Warm Day

We will have a mix of sun and clouds today with a stray shower possible. The afternoon high will be near 86. For tonight, we’ll have partly cloudy skies with patchy fog late. The low will be 68. Thursday there will be a slight chance for a shower with a high of 88. A cold front moves through the area on Friday. The front will bring a chance for showers early on Friday then clear the area out for the weekend. The high temperatures will be in the lower 80’s for Saturday and Sunday. It will feel more like fall by Saturday.

Tropics:

Tropical Storm Karen:

Karen is becoming stronger in the open Atlantic. Karen is looking more like it could become a hurricane over the next few days. No change from the thinking of yesterday that Karen will turn north in the next 3 to 4 days. Here is the forecast track form the National Hurricane Center:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/084025.shtml?5day#contents


Tropical Depression #13:

TD #13 will be making landfall this weekend in Mexico. It could become a tropical storm before making landfall on Saturday.

Slight Chance of Showers

Skies will continue to be partly cloudy overnight and Wednesday. Light flow from off the ocean could cause a shower or two, but coverage will be limited. Highs Wednesday will reach the mid to upper 80s, cooler on the beaches. Thursday looks dry and warm across the area with highs mainly in the upper 80s. A cold front will cross the area Friday and Friday night. There will be enough moisture ahead of the front for a chance of a shower or thunderstorm, coverage does not look that great. Highs Friday should again reach the upper 80s. Then high pressure to the north will dominate our weather this weekend, with breezes picking up out of the northeast. It will be cooler under a mix of sun and clouds. While a coastal shower can't be ruled out, most moisture will get pushed to our south into Florida.

Tropics:

Tropical Storm Karen in the far eastern Atlantic is moving west-northwest. It is projected to turn more to the north later this week, and indications are this system should remain well out to sea.

Disturbed weather in the southwest Gulf of Mexico has formed into a tropical depression. The system will drift around slowly the next couple days before it should head west into Mexico. The system will likely strengthen some, at least into a tropical storm (Lorenzo) while it remains over water.

Another Nice Day

For today, we’ll have mainly sunny skies in the morning then a mix of sun and clouds. There will be a chance for a stray shower. The afternoon high will be in the mid 80’s. For tonight, there will be patchy clouds with lows near 70. Wednesday and Thursday we’ll have a mix of sun and clouds with a slight chance for a shower. The highs will be 86-88. A cold front will pass through the area late Friday night. The front will bring a good chance for showers and storms for Friday afternoon/evening. After the front moves though we will have a nice weekend.

Tropics:

Tropical Storm Karen:

Karen is a weak tropical storm producing winds of 40 mph. The storm will continue to move west then take a turn northwest then north. The computer models show the storm staying out to sea. Karen should become a strong tropical storm in four to five days.

Warm Weather to Continue

Temperatures will remain above average for much of the week, though breezes out of the east the next couple days will provide some comfort. While showers are not out of the question due to the east flow, rain chances should remain isolated the next couple days. There may be a little higher chance of a downpour later in the week as a cold front is expected to push through on Friday.

Tropics:

An area of disturbed weather in the southwest Gulf of Mexico could develop into a tropical depression the next couple of days. This system could move towards the Mexican coast or remain offshore nearly stationary.

Another area of disturbed weather along the Lesser Antilles could develop over the next couple days as it moves northwest and west. This system is currently projected to move south of Puerto Rico and the big island of Hispaniola through the middle of the week.

A third system and the most impressive looking one is well out in the eastern Atlantic. This system will likely be a tropical depression on Tuesday as it moves to the west-northwest.

A Warm Fall Day

For today, we’ll have lots of sun in the morning then a mix of sun and clouds in the afternoon. The high will be in the upper 80’s. Tonight there will be mostly clear skies with lows in the upper 60’s. Tuesday through Thursday there will be a mix of sun and clouds with warm temperatures. The highs will be 86-88. There will be a cold front moving through on Friday that will give us a better chance for showers and storms.

Tropics:

There are two areas in the Atlantic worth watching this week.

The first area is a tropical wave (97 L) east of the Leeward Islands. The area of thunderstorms will continue moving west and will bring heavy rain to the Leeward Islands over the next two days.

The second area is a tropical wave (98 L) west of the Cape Verde Islands. The tropical wave is becoming better organized, and the wave may become a tropical depression over the next few days.

Warmer Weekend Weather

Tonight: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 8pm. Areas of fog after 2am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 73. East southeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Sunday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Areas of fog before 10am. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a high near 89. Calm wind becoming east between 6 and 9 mph.

Sunday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 72. East southeast wind around 6 mph becoming calm.

Improving Weather This Weekend

A band of thunderstorms with heavy rain moved slowly up the coast this morning, producing several inches of rain in some locations, causing areas of flooding. Over the weekend, there will still be a chance of scattered downpours, but activity will be less organized. Mainly, we'll see more sunshine and warmer temperatures, with highs reaching the upper 80s. It will feel more like summer for the first day of fall Sunday.

Tropical Depression Ten formed Friday just south of the Florida Panhandle. This system will move west-northwest into Mississippi and Louisiana over the weekend, causing heavy amounts of rain. As this system moves further west of our area, the moisture in the atmosphere should be lower, resulting in less rain for us.

Showers and Storms for Today

For today, we’ll have more clouds than sun with scattered showers and storms. Some of the storms will be severe. The afternoon high will be in the mid 80’s. Saturday there will be a mix of sun and clouds with a chance for thunderstorms in the afternoon. On Sunday, there will be a mix of sun and clouds with warm temperatures. The high temperatures for the weekend will be in the upper 80’s.

Fall begins on Sunday at 5:51 a.m.

Tropics:

The low south of Florida in the eastern Gulf of Mexico has the potential to develop into a tropical system today or tomorrow. The low will move west and bring gusty winds and heavy rain to the Gulf coast states.

Shower Chances Continue

Low pressure in the eastern Gulf of Mexico will move west-northwest while an old frontal boundary to our east slowly fades. The combination of these two things will lead to less shower activity in our area on Friday, and some sun should come out. Highs will reach into the mid 80s. A shower is possible Friday night, but it should be a better evening for high school football than last week. Saturday and Sunday will feature a mix of sun and clouds with isolated showers possible. Highs will reach the upper 80s and could touch 90 in a few spots.

Tropics:

Low pressure in the eastern Gulf of Mexico could become a tropical storm as it moves towards the west-northwest. This could bring some nasty weather to the central Gulf coast this weekend.

A Wet Morning

There will be a good chance for rain in the morning. Some of the rain will be heavy at times. Most of the day will be cloudy with highs near 80. For tonight, we’ll have mostly cloudy skies with lows in the lower 70’s. Friday there will be more clouds than sun with showers and storms possible in the afternoon. The afternoon high will be in the mid 80’s. The weekend will be warm with highs in the upper 80’s. There will be a mix of sun and clouds with a chance for an afternoon storm on Saturday.

Tropics:

There will be a chance for a sub-tropical or tropical system to develop in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The low that is in the Gulf will move west. The computer models don’t show a strong tropical cyclone in the Gulf. The low will bring heavy rain to the Gulf coast states this weekend.

The rest of the tropics are quiet.

Wet Weather for Thursday

Moisture off the coast associated with an old frontal boundary will move onshore overnight and Thursday. Expect showers, a few of which could be heavy, though I'm not expecting excessive amounts of rain. Highest rain amounts will be along the coast, with lower amounts inland. Low pressure over south-central Florida will move west Thursday and Friday. As it moves further west, our moisture will decrease some, and while some showers will continue in the area, there should be less coverage.

Clouds and showers will cause temperatures to struggle to reach 80 on Thursday. Then with increasing sun Friday and Saturday, temps will warm up into the mid to upper 80s, making for a summer-like feel this weekend.

Tropics:

The low moving west across south-central Florida into the eastern Gulf could develop into a tropical storm as it continues to move west or west-northwest away from the area.

Wet Weather by Tomorrow

A stalled front off the southeast coast will allow for unsettled weather by this afternoon. For today, we’ll have a mix of sun and clouds in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy by the afternoon. There will be a chance for showers along the coast in the afternoon. The high for today will be in the lower 80’s. For tonight, there will be mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers. The morning low will be in the upper 60’s. Thursday will be a wet day with breezy conditions. The high for Thursday will be near 80. We will continue to have a chance for afternoon showers and storms on Friday. The weekend will warm back up into the upper 80’s, with a chance for storms in the afternoon on Saturday.

Tropics:

Possible Tropical Development (93 L)

A low pressure has developed at the tail end of a front. The low is off the coast of Florida, producing rain and gusty winds. The computer models move the low across Florida and develop it into a tropical depression over the weekend. Most of the models take the tracks of the low into Louisiana.

The rest of the tropics are mostly quiet.

Moisture On the Increase

Expect clouds to increase over the area Wednesday, especially near the coast, as an old frontal boundary offshore interacts with easterly breezes. Some showers could reach the coast Wednesday afternoon, more likely Wednesday night. Showers are likely across the entire area Thursday. Some rain could be heavy Wednesday night and Thursday, mainly near the coast. Expect highs in the low 80s both Wednesday and Thursday.

Low pressure developing near south Florida is expected to move west-northwest into the Gulf of Mexico Thursday. Some tropical development of this system is likely, and it should move towards the central and western Gulf coast area by the weekend. As this system moves west, our rain chances will decrease, but the higher humidity left behind could still trigger some showers Friday and Saturday. Expect this weekend to feel more like summer again.

East-northeast breezes will continue to be brisk on the coast Wednesday, with a heavy surf advisory in effect along with a higher than usual risk of rip currents.

A Nice Day

For today, we’ll have mostly sunny skies, breezy and mild. The afternoon high will be near 82. For tonight, there will be patchy clouds and the low will be near 64. A low pressure will develop off the Florida coast. The low will bring the area a chance for showers on Wednesday night through Friday. The highs will remain in the lower 80’s for much of the week.

Tropics:

There is a large area of showers and storms off the coast of Florida. Some of the computer models show a tropical depression developing in the Gulf of Mexico by the end of the week. There are a few tropical waves in the Atlantic, but none show tropical development.

A Refreshing Start to the Week

Autumn-like conditions are being felt in the Coastal Empire thanks to a cold front that moved through earlier this weekend. High pressure to the northeast is providing breezy conditions along with the lower temperatures and low humidity.

It will continue to be windy along the coast due to the onshore breezes and a heavy surf advisory remains in effect Tuesday along with a small craft advisory on the coastal waters.

On land, plenty of sun will be out on Tuesday with some clouds mixing in near the coast. The old frontal boundary to the south is expected to move west across Florida as a developing area of low pressure Wednesday and Thursday. This will cause more moisture to move in off the ocean up into our area as well, resulting in more clouds and an increasing chance of showers. It is possible that some showers could be heavy Wednesday night and Thursday. Some shower chances may linger in the area Friday and Saturday, with a gradual decreasing trend. Temperatures and humidity will increase to make for a summer-like weekend.

Improvement This Weekend

A cold front followed by Canadian high pressure will bring drier air into the area this weekend. There still could be a couple showers in the area Saturday, but coverage will be less and any activity will be less intense than previous days. High temperatures will still reach the upper 80s with a muggy feel outside. Then Sunday will feel refreshingly cooler as breezes kick up out of the east-northeast. Most areas should be dry Sunday, with a mix of sun and clouds and highs dropping into the low to mid 80s.

Tropics:

We're not too concerned about anything in the tropics right now. Weak Tropical Storm Ingrid remains several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles as it moves slowly to the west-northwest. Upper level winds are currently unfavorable for strengthening, and are forecast to become more unfavorable the next couple days, possibly weakening or dissipating the system entirely.

Moisture Remains High

Daytime heating combined with plentiful moisture near a stalled frontal boundary to produce numerous thunderstorms in the afternoon Thursday. More scattered thunderstorms will develop Friday afternoon, perhaps a little less as it appears the best moisture content may shift into north Georgia. High temperatures will reach the upper 80s.
A cold front currently in the midwest will drive south and push through the area this weekend. Rain chances will gradually decrease this weekend as drier air pushes in. Sunday will be the nicest day of the two with highs dropping to near 84 and a refreshing breeze out of the east-northeast.

Tropics:

"Humberto" moved ashore near the Texas/Louisiana coast this morning and has weakened to a depression over Louisiana. The system will cause excessive rainfall in Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama Friday before being absorbed by the cold front pushing south.

Tropical Depression Eight remains well east of the Lesser Antilles and will move slowly west-northwest over the next few days. Some slight strengthening into a tropical storm is expected.

More Storms this Afternoon

For today, we’ll have a mix of sun and clouds then becoming mostly cloudy in the afternoon. There will be a good chance for showers and storms in the afternoon. Some of the storms will produce heavy rain. The afternoon high will in the upper 80’s. For tonight, mostly cloudy with scattered showers and storms in the evening. The low will be near 72. The afternoon showers and storms will continue for Friday and Saturday. The high for Friday and Saturday will be in the upper 80’s. There will be a cold front moving through the area on Saturday night. The front will bring cooler temperatures and lower humidity for Sunday into Monday. For Sunday and Monday there will be a mix of sun and clouds with highs in the mid 80’s.

Tropics:

Hurricane Humberto:

Humberto strengthened quickly during the night. Humberto made landfall this morning as a category one hurricane with winds of 85 mph. Humberto will weaken into a tropical storm later today. The track of Humberto will be slow for the next 3 days, before a cold front picks the storm up, and move it east. Humberto will bring heavy rain to Texas and Louisiana.

Tropical Depression #8:

The tropical depression about 920 miles east of the Windward Islands will become our next tropical storm in the next day or two. There will be an upper level trough approaching from the west of TD #8 in 4 days. The strong upper level winds will not allow the storm to strengthen much in 4 days. We have a lot of time to watch the storm as it moves W/NW in the open Atlantic.

Wet Afternoons to Continue

A stalled front just to our northwest will cause mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms through Friday. Expect a mix of clouds and sun outside of any wet weather, with highs in the upper 80s, perhaps touching 90.

A second cold front will push through on Saturday, helping to shove the best moisture to our south. There will still be a chance of showers Saturday, but a decreasing chance of rain will begin. A more pleasant air mass will move in on Sunday and the beginning of next week along with refreshing east or northeast breezes.

Tropics:

A system in the western Gulf of Mexico rapidly organized into Tropical Storm Humberto today. It will move north into the Galveston area tonight, then push northeast Thursday and Friday before being absorbed by the same cold front which will improve our weather this weekend. Areas of upper Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi can expect some enhanced rainfall over the next couple days.

The system a little over a thousand miles east of the Lesser Antilles is now a tropical depression. It will likely become a tropical storm (Ingrid) tonight or Thursday. Movement will be rather slow towards the west-northwest the next several days, and the system will only be approaching the longitude of the Lesser Antilles early next week.

Wet Weather in the Afternoon

A cold front will stall out across the southeast for the next few days. The front will allow for a good chance for showers and storm in the afternoon/evening. For today, we’ll have a mix of sun and clouds in the morning, then becoming mostly cloudy in the afternoon. Showers and storm will develop in the afternoon. Today’s high will be near 88. Tonight will be mostly cloudy with showers and storms likely in the evening. The low will be in the lower 70’s. The front that is stalled out will drift around the next two days, before moving off the coast by the weekend. Thursday though Friday there will be more clouds than sun with scattered showers and storms in the afternoon. The highs will be in the upper 80’s. The weekend is looking fairly nice. We will have a mix of sun and clouds with highs near 85-87. The best chance of a thunderstorm will be on Saturday.


Tropics:

Tropical Wave (91L):

The tropical wave about 1130 miles east of the Windward Islands is looking much better organized this morning. Here is the satellite look at the tropical wave:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn.jpg
The tropical wave may become a tropical depression today or tomorrow. Some of the computer models develop the tropical wave into a tropical storm in five days.

Higher Chances of Rain

A cold front will approach the area Wednesday and stall out just to our northwest. This feature will increase our chance for mainly afternoon downpours. The front will remain nearby Thursday and Friday, resulting in a continuation of scattered downpours in the area. With more clouds and better coverage of rain the next three days, our high temperatures will drop into the upper 80s. A stronger cold front should push through Saturday, taking the best moisture offshore, allowing for decreasing chances of rain over the weekend. We should also notice a more pleasant air mass moving into the area on Sunday.

A Warm Afternoon

For today, we’ll have a mix of sun and clouds with isolated showers in the afternoon. The high will be in the lower 90’s. Tonight there will be mostly cloudy skies with a slight chance for a shower. The low will be near 74. A cold front will approach the area on Wednesday. The front will stall out across the southeast through the end of the week. Wednesday through Friday we’ll have more clouds than sun with a good chance for showers and storms in the afternoon. The high temperatures will be in the upper 80’s. This weekend there will be a mix of sun and clouds with a chance for storms in the afternoon. The high will be in the upper 80’s.

Tropics:

Today is the peak of hurricane season. The tropics are fairly quiet. There is a tropical wave (91L) producing a large area of thunderstorms. The wave is about 1300 miles east of the Windward Islands. The wave may develop into a tropical depression later this week.

Another Hot Day Tuesday

Temperatures will reach back into the low 90s Tuesday with plenty of sunshine. Plenty of moisture to our south in Florida will promote widespread thunderstorms in the afternoon there, a couple which may move up into south Georgia around the Altamaha River.
Chances of rain will increase across the entire area Wednesday as a front approaches from the northwest. This front will stall out across the area and rain chances will remain high through the end of the week. More clouds and the likelihood of some wet weather each day will cause our high temperatures to drop into the 80s.

Another Warm Day

After the beautiful weekend we’ll continue seeing lots of sunshine for today. The afternoon high will be in the lower 90’s. For tonight, there will be patchy clouds with lows near 72. Tuesday, we’ll have a mix of sun and clouds with isolated showers in the afternoon. The high will be near 92. A cold front will move into the area by Wednesday. The front will stall out across the area by Thursday. So, we will have a good chance for showers and storms for Wednesday through Friday. The best chance of rain will be in the afternoon. The highs for Wednesday into Friday will be in the upper 80’s. Have a good week!

Tropics:

Tropical Depression Gabrielle: Gabrielle made landfall on Sunday morning at Cape Lookout, North Carolina. Tropical storm Gabrielle did bring gusty winds and heavy rain to the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Sunday. Gabrielle was downgraded to a tropical depression early this morning. The depression will pull away from the United States today.

Tropical wave (91L):

A tropical wave located about 950 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands has the chance to become our next tropical depression this week. There is a large area of thunderstorms with the tropical wave. The wave will continue to move west in the open Atlantic. Most of the tropical computer models develop the wave into a tropical storm in five days.

A Nice Weekend!

We will have a nice weekend across the area. Saturday we’ll have mostly sunny skies, it will be breezy and warm. The afternoon high will be near 90. Saturday night there will be partly cloudy skies with lows near 68. Sunday a mix of sun and clouds the afternoon high will be near 91. Looking at the models the next chance of rain will be on Wednesday. Have a good weekend!

Tropics:

Developing Low (99L): The low between Bermuda and the Bahamas has become better organized today. The thunderstorms are beginning to wrap around the center of circulation. The low should become a tropical depression on Saturday. There is a chance that it could become a tropical storm on Sunday before landfall. The tropical computer models show the low should make landfall late Sunday on the east coast of North Carolina. The main concern for the area will be increase in seas along the coast. Also there is a moderate rip current risk for area beaches.

A Nice Friday

The last day of the workweek is looking nice. For Friday, we’ll have a mix of sun and clouds with the afternoon high near 88. Friday night will be mostly clear and pleasant with low near 70. It will be a great night for Friday night football! The weekend is now looking sunny, breezy, and warm. Afternoon highs will be in the lower/mid 90’s. The low pressure that is developing off the southeast coast should pass well northeast of the area.

Tropics:

Low Pressure (99L)

The low pressure that has been getting a lot of attention is not looking any better organized today. The upper level wind shear is still not allowing storms to develop around the center of circulation. All the computer models show the low pressure developing and moving west then northwest. Here is a look at the models:

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_99.gif

I don’t see the low pressure having much of an impact on our weather. The only concern will be the increase in seas.

Keeping an Eye to the East

Plenty of sunshine will continue here through the end of the week. High temperatures will remain near 90, slightly hotter inland. The humidity will stay a little below average.

The main weather focus is low pressure well offshore. Upper level winds have prevented the system from developing into a tropical system today, but the winds should subside enough to allow for development the next couple of days. It is likely to be a named system by Friday. The system will meander on Thursday, then should begin to move west some by Friday as a ridge of high pressure to the north controls it's movement. The consensus of computer models shows this system turning northwest well east of Georgia, and heading close to the North Carolina coast this weekend. This scenario would have very little effect on our weather, except it would be breezy over the weekend and boating conditions offshore would be rough. We will continue to monitor the track of this system in case there are any significant changes.

Another Sunny Day

The sunny weather will continue through the end of the workweek. Today though Friday there will be lots of sunshine with highs near 90, and morning lows will be near 70. The weekend will be dry with a mix of sun and clouds and highs remaining near 90. We will be watching a tropical system off the southeast coast over the weekend.

Tropics:

Felix: The national hurricane center has issued the last advisory on tropical depression Felix.

Non-Tropical Low (99L):

A non-tropical low is half way between Bermuda and Florida. The low continues to shows sings of getting better organized. The main problem for the low not developing quickly is the upper level winds. The strong upper level winds are shearing out the clouds to the east. The winds in the upper levels will continue to become more favorable for tropical development over the next 24 hours. I would not be surprised to have a tropical depression by Thursday afternoon. The track of the low will continue east until high pressure to the north of low will slide off the New England coast. The high will steer the low west, then north over the weekend. Many of the computer models show landfall in North Carolina on Saturday. There is a possibility that the low could strengthen into a hurricane before landfall. With this track, it will have very little impact on our weather in the Coastal Empire and Low Country.

Watching Low Pressure to the East

Dry weather will continue through at least the end of the week, with plenty of sunshine and seasonably hot temperatures. The humidity will remain below average for early September, partly because of low pressure a few hundred miles to our east helping to pull down some dry air into the area.

Low pressure mentioned above is drifting east. It is likely to become a named tropical system by the end of the week, if not sooner as it drifts and organizes over warm water. The most likely scenario involving it's future track is for the system to get trapped between the east coast and Bermuda by a building ridge of high pressure to the north. This will likely cause the system to move back some to the west and northwest. Computer models are trending towards a track closer to the Carolinas coast this weekend, before turning to the north. The most likely scenario does not involve us at this point, but we will continue to monitor it closely.

Elsewhere in the tropics:

Powerful Hurricane Felix has moved inland over Central America and will continue to weaken over land.

A Sunny Day

We will have a nice day across the area. There will be lots of sun with highs in the lower 90’s. For tonight, we’ll have clear skies with lows near 68. Wednesday through Thursday we will continue to have mostly sunny skies with high near 90. By Friday we will have a mix of sun and clouds with highs in the upper 80’s. Have a good Day!!

Tropics:

Hurricane Felix:

Felix made landfall this morning as a category five storm along the Nicaragua coast. Felix will continue moving west into Mexico, and become a tropical depression by early Friday morning. Felix is the second category five hurricane to make landfall this season.

Low Pressure (99L):

The low that brought us the rain over the weekend is 350 miles east of Jacksonville, FL. The low is a non-tropical low, however, it has a good chance to develop into a tropical depression over the next few days. The low will be slow to develop due to mid-level dry air that’s moving into the northwestern side of the low. Many of the computer models develop the low into a tropical storm by the weekend. The models also drift the low east, and then move the low north. On this track the low will stay well east of our area. However, things could change with the track of the developing low, so stay tuned into the Future Trak weather center for the latest.

A Chance to Dry Out

Much drier air is pushing in from the north and will make for some pleasant days through the middle of the week. Temperatures will reach near or just above 90, but the humidity will be much lower than it has been recently. Expect plenty of sunshine through at least Thursday.

Low pressure that helped bring the heavy rains to our area this weekend is pushing east in the Atlantic, roughly along 30 degrees latitude. There is a good chance for development into a tropical system in the next couple days as it continues to move east to a point a few hundred miles to our east by Wednesday night. Then most computer models develop a blocking high pressure to prevent the system from totally going out to sea for a while.

Elsewhere in the tropics:

Powerful Hurricane Felix is bearing down on Honduras. It will continue to track mainly west and weaken over land, with all effects staying well south of the United States.

Dry Weather for the Week

After the heavy rain over the weekend we will see drier weather for much of the week. Many areas along the coast had 5-10” of rain this past weekend. There were many reports of flooded roads. The good news is we will have a dry day for your Labor Day. For today, a mix of sun and clouds, and the high will be near 88. Tonight we’ll have mostly clear skies with lows near 68. Tuesday through Friday we’ll have lots of sun with warm temperatures. The highs for much of the week will be near 90. Have a good Labor Day!!

Tropics:

Hurricane Felix:

Felix is a powerful category five in the Caribbean Sea. The maximum sustained winds are 165 mph. Felix is quickly moving off to the west at 21 mph. I don’t see Felix turning to the north and affecting the United States. There is a ridge of high pressure that will block Felix and keep the storm mainly on a westerly track through the next five days.

The low that brought our area rain this past weekend will have a chance to develop into a tropical system by the middle of the week. Most of the computer models have the low moving away from the southeast coast.

The Wet Weekend Continues

Saturday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 75. East northeast wind between 3 and 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Sunday: Periods of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 8am. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. High near 81. East wind between 5 and 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Sunday Night: Periods of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 8pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Low around 74. East northeast wind between 5 and 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Labor Day: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 87. Light wind becoming east northeast between 12 and 15 mph.

FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS

BEAUFORT SC-
728 PM EDT SAT SEP 1 2007

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT FOR
BEAUFORT COUNTY...

AT 724 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN
AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN FROM SKIDAWAY ISLAND TO TYBEE ISLAND TO JUST WEST
OF HILTON HEAD...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. THROUGH 830 PM...MOST
FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO THE DAUFUSKIE
ISLAND AREA. HOWEVER...LATER THIS EVENING ANOTHER BATCH OF HEAVY
RAIN WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE WARNED AREA...WHICH IS ALSO
APPROACHING A HIGH TIDE CYCLE. THEREFORE...BE ESPECIALLY ALERT WHEN
TRAVELING TONIGHT...AS FLOOD WATERS CAN BE VERY DIFFICULT TO SEE AT
NIGHT.

712 PM EDT SAT SEP 1 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
BRYAN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...

* UNTIL 115 AM EDT SUNDAY

* AT 706 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
VERY HEAVY RAIN OCCURRING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST BRYAN COUNTY...
INCLUDING THE TOWNS OF KELLER...FORT MCALLISTER AND RABBIT HILL.
THE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WAS NEARLY STATIONARY. RADAR INDICATES 2
TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN PER HOUR IS OCCURRING WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THESE
AREAS HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED 4 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN TODAY...THEREFORE
ANY FURTHER RAIN WILL EITHER RUN OFF OR POND IN LOW-LYING AREAS.
WITH ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED IN THIS AREA...
SIGNIFICANT FLOOD PROBLEMS COULD VERY WELL DEVELOP IN THE WARNED
AREA THIS EVENING.

* FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED IN AND AROUND...
BELFAST...KELLER...OAK LEVEL...
FORT MCALLISTER...RABBIT HILL...AND BRISBON...


...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 PM EDT FOR
CHATHAM COUNTY...

AT 652 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A BROAD AREA OF HEAVY
RAINFALL EXTENDING FROM NEAR RICHMOND HILL...TO DOWNTOWN SAVANNAH
AND FORT PULASKI. THIS AREA OF RAIN IS NEARLY STATIONARY. AT 648
PM...CHATHAM COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED NUMEROUS STREETS
IN AND AROUND SAVANNAH PROPER WERE COVERED IN WATER AND IMPASSIBLE.
THIS INCLUDES SECTIONS OF ABERCORN...HABERSHAM...AND VICTORY DRIVE.
ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL IN THESE AREAS...WHILE
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES AS MUCH AS 12 INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY
FALLEN IN A FEW AREAS BETWEEN WILMINGTON AND TYBEE ISLANDS. A VERY
SERIOUS FLOOD THREAT EXISTS IN THE WARNED AREA.

FLOODING IS EXPECTED IN AND AROUND BURROUGHS...GARDEN CITY...
ISLE OF HOPE...POOLER...PORT WENTWORTH...RIVERSIDE...SANDFLY...
SAVANNAH...TYBEE ISLAND...SKIDAWAY ISLAND...THUNDERBOLT...
VERNONBURG...WHITE BLUFF...WILMINGTON ISLAND AND WINDSOR FOREST.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THESE STORMS WILL CAUSE RAPID FLOODING OF
STREETS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS
AND LOW-LYING SPOTS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT FLOODING...PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN CHARLESTON TOLL FREE AT 1-888-383-2024 OR EMAIL YOUR
REPORTS TO CHS.SKYWARN@NOAA.GOV.